All Posts Tagged: leading economic indicators

U.S. Outlook: Is the economy accelerating or slowing down?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

It’s not only the stock market that’s throwing off more mixed signals and increased volatility these days.

Graph showing different leading indicators for economic performance.The tea leaves on the U.S. economy have become harder to read as well.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Feb. 23.

Key observations:
  • The U.S. labor market continues to run hot. We look for the U.S. unemployment rate to move a tenth of a percentage point lower to 4.0% when the February jobs report is released.
  • Existing home sales have dropped sharply for two consecutive months now.
  • Economic indicators are still generally beating analysts’ expectations, but not by as much as they were just a month ago.
  • Our estimate for Q1 GDP growth slips to 2.0%, as real consumer spending continues to lag the fourth quarter growth rate.

 

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Q3 is off to a good start

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
chart showing rise & fall of weekly jobless claims for past 15 years or so

Concerns regarding a persistent undershoot on inflation and risks to growth abroad still weigh heavy on some FOMC member minds, yet most saw the downside risks to the U.S. economy as diminishing.

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U.S. Outlook: No worries, mate — rebound continues

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent GDP readings, along with forecast for next several quarters.

It’s been another week of better readings on U.S. housing, initial jobless claims, and leading economic indicators.

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