All Posts Tagged: Mexico

U.S. Outlook: A warning from the jobs report

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The May U.S. jobs report gave us a taste of what’s ahead if trade war threats continue to escalate and tariffs continue to grow. Hiring faded across the board in May with just 75,000 net new jobs created in the U.S. last month. The U.S. economy also created 75,000 fewer jobs in March and April than previously reported.

This is not just a one-off hiccup in the data, but part of a broader more prolonged pattern of labor market softening.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 7.

Key observations:
  • Disappointing U.S. jobs data suggest consumer spending slowdown in the months ahead.
  • We are now expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in Sept after disappointing jobs growth in May.
  • The Fed funds futures market is currently pricing in a high probability (77%) of a rate cut at the July FOMC meeting but this bet appears pretty aggressive given what we know today.
  • At this point, policymakers should tread carefully. De-escalating the trade war with Mexico and a Fed rate cut are going to be needed to keep the U.S. expansion going.

Read my full report.

Read More ›

Investment Insights: Trade winds weaken

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

While U.S. and Chinese trade relations sour, concerns about other U.S. trade partners have grown, as officials attempt to shore up agreements with Canada and Mexico, and the European Union.

Read More ›

Investment Insights: In the black after Labor Day

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Urban skyline in Canada, with Canadian flag in a corner of the scene

The trade war between the U.S. and its northern ally, Canada, got frostier this week.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: U.S., Mexico reach preliminary trade agreement

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Semi truck hauling 8 new cars through a vast field under a partly cloudy sky.

It is improbable that future U.S.-Canada trade will not be governed by a trade agreement in one form or another.

Read More ›

Investment Insights: The New, New Deal

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Tractor in the middle distance with a watering attachment as it travels over a vast, planted vegetable field.

Trade fears are on the mend as a radically new policy in Washington may be starting to work its magic.

Read More ›