All Posts Tagged: oil

U.S. Outlook: When giants fight

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

When giants fight, folks get trampled. A prolonged and escalating U.S. trade war with China is now our baseline view and no longer a downside risk to our outlook.

The impact of the trade war escalation is clearly visible in our lowered forecasts for U.S. GDP growth, interest rates, and inflation. We have cut our near‐term consumer inflation forecasts as oil, energy, and metals prices plunge and the U.S. dollar strengthens on flight‐to‐safety capital flows.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 31.

Key observations:
  • Escalating U.S.-China trade war is now our base case and no longer just a risk.
  • U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2019 has been cut to 2.3% from 2.5%.
  • Our Fed rate cut forecast has been moved forward, and the Fed may lower rates as early as September.

Read my full report.

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Investment Insights: Fret or fundamentals?

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Photo of oil tanker and rig with stock market figures lightly superimposed over it.

Many investors are worried that the precipitous slide in crude oil prices signals a possible slowdown on a global scale.

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Greentech: Where is the energy transition headed in the United States?

Andreas Bubenzer-Paim
Technology Banking
Engineer in yellow hardhat testing a solar panel

After suffering through the 2008 financial crisis, greentech startups are now starting to surf the digital wave.

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U.S. Outlook: Strong consumer-led rebound in Q2 GDP anticipated

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Young, smiling man wearing an apron and holding a pen while sitting at a table and talking to a business woman.

Robust real GDP growth above 4% is expected in the second quarter of this year, driven by a sharp rebound in real consumer spending.

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Investment Insights: Tillerson takes a walk

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
3 oil rigs on a snowy, barren field as the sun tries to show itself in a gray sky.

Earnings results and a fairly tame inflation release in the U.S. may be helping to buoy prices against declines from geopolitical news.

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