All Posts Tagged: oil
When giants fight, folks get trampled. A prolonged and escalating U.S. trade war with China is now our baseline view and no longer a downside risk to our outlook.
The impact of the trade war escalation is clearly visible in our lowered forecasts for U.S. GDP growth, interest rates, and inflation. We have cut our near‐term consumer inflation forecasts as oil, energy, and metals prices plunge and the U.S. dollar strengthens on flight‐to‐safety capital flows.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 31.Key observations:
- Escalating U.S.-China trade war is now our base case and no longer just a risk.
- U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2019 has been cut to 2.3% from 2.5%.
- Our Fed rate cut forecast has been moved forward, and the Fed may lower rates as early as September.
Read my full report.Read More ›
Many investors are worried that the precipitous slide in crude oil prices signals a possible slowdown on a global scale.Read More ›
After suffering through the 2008 financial crisis, greentech startups are now starting to surf the digital wave.Read More ›
Robust real GDP growth above 4% is expected in the second quarter of this year, driven by a sharp rebound in real consumer spending.Read More ›