All Posts Tagged: outlook

U.S. Outlook: When giants fight

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

When giants fight, folks get trampled. A prolonged and escalating U.S. trade war with China is now our baseline view and no longer a downside risk to our outlook.

The impact of the trade war escalation is clearly visible in our lowered forecasts for U.S. GDP growth, interest rates, and inflation. We have cut our near‐term consumer inflation forecasts as oil, energy, and metals prices plunge and the U.S. dollar strengthens on flight‐to‐safety capital flows.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 31.

Key observations:
  • Escalating U.S.-China trade war is now our base case and no longer just a risk.
  • U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2019 has been cut to 2.3% from 2.5%.
  • Our Fed rate cut forecast has been moved forward, and the Fed may lower rates as early as September.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Dark clouds loom over the global economy

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
dark-clouds-manufacturing-outlook

Bad news about the global economy seems to be piling up. Last week the OECD cut its 2019 global growth estimate to only 3.2% from 3.3% forecast just two months ago.

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U.S. Outlook: Housing shows resilience; other sectors, not so much

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing mortgage refinance applications climbing due to lower interest rates

The U.S. is enjoying a mini refi boom as lower long-term rates lift the housing market.

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U.S. Outlook: The U.S. consumer hangs in there, for now

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent upward trend in consumer confidence.

Consumers continued to spend at a rapid clip in August, and their confidence in September may not be very shaken by global market turmoil.

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U.S. Outlook: Reasons to remain optimistic

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing upward trend in small business optimism

In times of market turmoil, it’s easy to get bearish on the economic outlook. But in reality, market forces often work in cross purposes on the economy.

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