All Posts Tagged: payroll report

U.S. Outlook: Consumers remain a confident bunch

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

It’s been a long time coming, but more consumers are finally riding the wave of plentiful job opportunities, rising incomes, and improving net worth. Nowhere is this better reflected than in the Graph showing sharp increase in consumer confidence between Oct 2009 and June 2017current readings of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index. Consumer confidence has only been at these nose‐bleed levels a handful of times over the last 40 years, notably in the late 1980’s and the late 1990’s.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 30.

Key observations:
  • More consumers expect their income to increase rather than decrease over the next six months.
  • Ahead of next week’s U.S. payroll report for June, we are forecasting an acceleration in non‐farm job growth to around 168K from a May increase of 138K jobs.
  • First quarter real consumer spending growth was revised higher this week to 1.1% from an initial estimate of 0.3% growth.

Click here to read my full report.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: A rock-solid payroll report for January

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing monthly job gains over last several years.

Job growth in January exceeded economists’ expectations (227K), adding some hard-data weight to rising spirits in recent consumer and business sentiment surveys.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Election nerve flare-ups vs. decent U.S. data

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing rises and sips in productivity ratings over last several years.

We finally got some better news as U.S. productivity increased at its fastest rate in two years in the third quarter.

Read More ›