All Posts Tagged: personal income

U.S. Outlook: Time for tighter monetary policy?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Business equipment spending chartThis week we saw resilient third quarter GDP. Next week, we expect a strong rebound in U.S. payroll growth for October.

The data will create a quandary at the FOMC meeting, where voting members will need to weigh a tightening labor market and above trend-GDP growth against consumer inflation that continues to run below target.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Oct. 27.

Key observations:
  • The hurricanes’ fingerprints on the GDP report were relatively light, despite the plunge in September payrolls – consumer and business spending continued to move higher.
  • By the December FOMC meeting, the economic and financial environment will be more than ripe for another quarter point rate increase from the Fed.
  • We are forecasting a strong rebound in job growth to around 260K from a drop of 33K in September, with the unemployment rate holding steady at a 17-year low of 4.2%.
  • We believe around 80K jobs created in October will be a rebound effect from jobs that were counted as lost during the hurricanes.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Keep one eye on the fundamentals

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing rises and falls - especially recently - in U.S. gas prices.

It’s important to remember that the stock market and the oil market are not the U.S. economy.

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Instant Analysis: January employment report

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Commuters on a sunny day walking across a bridge toward a city center on their way to work.

Three cheers for the U.S. labor market. Once again the monthly jobs report exceeds economists’ consensus expectations.

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