All Posts Tagged: productivity

U.S. Outlook: Why 3.0% GDP growth looks like a long shot

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

President Trump talks about returning the United States to 3.0% GDP growth or better, and it’s baked into his FY 2018 budget plan to reach that milestone by 2021.

Graph showing recent dip in labor force growth.Many mainstream economists, including myself, believe such a strong growth rate over the medium term is highly unlikely.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 9.

Key observations:
  • GDP growth in the current expansion has averaged a modest 1.8% per year, the lowest expansion growth rate in the postwar period.
  • Nonfarm productivity growth defined as real output per hour worked was 0.0% at an annual rate in the first quarter.
  • The labor force growth rate over the past 12 months is a modest 0.8%.
  • The Federal Reserve estimates U.S. potential GDP growth today at around 1.6% per year, and that number is likely to slip further without a surge in productivity in the years ahead.
Click here to read my full report. Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Election nerve flare-ups vs. decent U.S. data

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing rises and sips in productivity ratings over last several years.

We finally got some better news as U.S. productivity increased at its fastest rate in two years in the third quarter.

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Decluttering your email inbox may boost your security

David Pollino
Security
Young male worker at his computer in a small workspace, with 2 coworkers visible in the background.

We all get too many emails, and it can be easy to just go with the flow. But there are very good reasons to do a virtual declutter now and then.

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U.S. Outlook: Updating our virtuous cycle checklist

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing latest dip in jobless claims

Economists have been trying to spot a pro-growth virtuous cycle in the current ecomomic expansion, and now we believe it’s near.

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U.S. Outlook: Manufacturing’s window into the economy

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing avg weekly hours of manufacturing workers

Want to see something striking about the health and direction of the economy? Look into recent industrial production and manufacturing data.

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