All Posts Tagged: real estate

California Economic Outlook: Blowback

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The Golden State’s outlook is actually less than golden. The trade war between the U.S. and China has negative implications for California, which would have the fifth-largest economy in the world if it were a country. Around half of U.S. trade with China currently passes through Los Angeles area ports.

port-of-long-beach-cranes

Tough tariffs

Agricultural exports from the state’s Central Valley could suffer because they are on the list of goods subject to retaliatory tariffs by China.

Indeed, a study from the University of California, Davis, estimates that higher tariffs may cost major U.S. fruit and nut industries $2.6 billion per year in exports to countries imposing higher tariffs, including China. In addition, Bay Area tech companies are also in the crosshairs. For example, higher tariffs mean higher component costs. That could ultimately push prices of devices higher and reduce demand.

Sputtering jobs engine

California’s job growth engine is not dead yet, but it is sputtering. Job growth year-on-year slipped below the national rate in December 2018, after exceeding U.S. growth for nearly seven years. Annual job growth in California has moderated for three consecutive years, and the slowdown is projected to continue through 2020.

For more insights, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the California Economic Outlook.

Key observations:
  • California’s unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in April 2019 from an all-time low of 4.1% in July 2018. It is expected to average 4.9% by 2020, the highest since 2016.
  • Job growth is forecast to moderate across all regions in 2019 and 2020 except for the Central Coast where some acceleration is expected in 2019. The slowest job growth is forecast in Southern California over both years.
  • California’s home price increases will moderate to more sustainable rates of around 2.0% over the next two years due to decelerating job growth, slowing economic activity, continued out-migration, and weak population growth.

Read my full report.

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The Double Bottom Line on Tiny Homes: Smaller (carbon) footprint, bigger bang for the buck?

Newsroom
Posted by Newsroom
Corporate News

Tiny houses have hit the big time, especially among younger homebuyers. In fact, more than half of Americans would consider living in a home that’s less than 600 square feet, according to a 2017 study from the National Association of Home Builders.

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Top six ways entrepreneurs use credit

Kristin Nelson
Wealth Management Strategy

The world’s most successful entrepreneurs are betting on themselves. That’s one big takeaway from our recent survey of thousands of elite entrepreneurs (those with $10 million or more in investable assets) around the world and their attitudes toward credit.

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5 reasons to consider an FHA loan

Victor Polich
Mortgage Banking
Gold key with "FHA" on it, against red background

FHA loans are designed to be more flexible when evaluating potential borrowers for approval.

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5 simple steps to boost your credit score

Victor Polich
Mortgage Banking
Young couple sitting against stacked moving boxes in their still-empty, sunny new home.

A credit score is an indicator of financial health. It signifies your strength to banks and can help determine how easy or expensive it is for you to buy a home or car.

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