All Posts Tagged: Recession

U.S. Outlook: Buckle up, it’s going to get bumpy

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

U.S. President Donald Trump’s tweets that he is raising tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports from 10% to 25% because the Chinese “broke the deal” triggered a bout of global stock and bond market volatility not seen since December.

Economic crisis - Stock market graphs and charts - Financial and business background

We interpret this week’s market tremors as an early warning of a tougher US and global economic environment ahead.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 10.

Key observations:

  • Raising tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports from 10% to 25% nearly doubles the negative economic impact on both the U.S. and China from today’s tariff levels.
  • A 2020 economic recession is not inevitable, but the window for the Fed to achieve a soft landing is closing quickly.
  • Signs point to a U.S. consumer spending slowdown ahead.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Putting Fed tightening cycles under the microscope

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Exterior of the Federal Reserve in winter, with bare trees with loads of branches slightly obscure the building.

Investors are working overtime to divine not only the Federal Reserve’s next move, but how many more rate hikes we are likely to see in this cycle.

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Investment Insights: Volatility rears its head again

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Colorful Riyadh skyline at dusk.

The troubles in emerging markets have been brought to the fore over the last few months as issues in Turkey have worsened and South Africa has entered a recession.

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7 ideas for business owners looking to tackle costs

Michelle Di Gangi
Small Business Banking
Woman small business owner on the phone at her desk & scanning her computer monitor.

Savvy business owners know that surviving and flourishing is all about keeping costs under control, regardless of the external business environment.

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Investment Insights: The longest U.S. bull market? Sort of.

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Closeup of stock market screen with all green arrows pointing up next to specific percentages.

The current bull market isn’t over yet.

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