All Posts Tagged: retails sales

U.S. Outlook: More signs of inflation and growth

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Survey data on consumer and business confidence has soared since the November election, but the question on economists’ minds is: Will the hard, non-survey economic data follow to support this optimism?

Graph showing year-over-year growth in holiday sales.A new batch of hard economic data for December paints a positive picture of U.S. economic growth.

For more on these developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Jan. 20.

Key observations:
  • For the November and December period, total retail sales increased 4.0% compared to a year ago.
  • December’s retail sales gains were led by autos, gasoline stations, and non-store retailers (i.e., Amazon).
  • For the first time in this expansion, more consumer spending is coming with coincident doses of rising prices and rising credit-card balances.
  • Rising inflation is likely on the Fed’s radar now and could mean a faster pace of rate hikes in 2017 than the market currently has priced in.

Click here to read my full report.

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