All Posts Tagged: Scott Anderson
Despite stocks hitting record highs in November, the economic tea leaves continue to indicate slower U.S. and global economic growth in the fourth quarter. The Citi U.S. economic surprise index has been slipping since September 25th.
Positive economic surprises have largely come from only housing and labor market indicators over the past month, while retail positive surprises have faded.
October’s retail sales and industrial production releases revealed the continuing tug-of-war between a relatively resilient U.S. consumer and a manufacturing sector that remains mired in a deepening recession.
The U.S. consumer is increasingly looking tired. Retail sales growth is on a clear downtrend, even though overall it is still a long way from recessionary levels of spending.
Retail spending categories last month show most of the consumers’ additional spending went to gasoline stations, food, and motor vehicles – all necessities for most people. Meanwhile, discretionary retail spending categories like clothing, furniture, sporting goods, and electronics were all noticeably weak.Crisis of Confidence?
Moreover, weak real average weekly earnings growth of only 0.9% year-on-year through October, rising initial jobless claims, and a large gap between the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence measure, indicate consumer spending could continue to slow in 2020. The headwinds for the consumer are blowing a bit harder today.
Today’s retail sales data is consistent with our forecast for 2.3% real consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter. That is far lower than the 2.9% growth in the third quarter and a sizzling 4.6% growth pace in the second quarter. Our view is the longer manufacturers and the global economy struggle, the more that weakness will spread to the overall U.S. labor market and consumer spending.
For more, see my full U.S. Outlook, delivered on November 15.Read More ›
Wages for older workers grew a whopping 10.4 percentage points faster in 1991 than in the current economic expansion.Read More ›
Californians are feeling the effects of climate change: wildfires, record heat waves, and even atmospheric rivers have begun to wreaked havoc on the Golden State.
It’s increasingly clear that certain sectors of the world’s fifth largest economy are emerging as ground zero for the costs of climate change – and the potential costs are staggering.Read More ›
The U.S. labor market is slowing, just not as quickly as we all thought before the release of the October payrolls report. Despite the substantial headwinds of the GM strike and escalation of the trade war in September, U.S. nonfarm employment managed to increase a better than expected 128k jobs last month.Read More ›
Conventional wisdom on the strength and resilience of the U.S. expansion will be tested next week. Is the economy really headed for a soft landing?Read More ›