All Posts Tagged: September jobs

U.S. Outlook: Light at the end of the tunnel

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The hurricanes put a temporary hold on the labor market expansion for September, but the economic data released this week already point to a solid rebound in economic activity in the fourth quarter.

Graph showing recent rise in S&P 500 stock price indexFactory orders are moving higher, foretelling a solid rebound in U.S. industrial production growth in the months ahead.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Oct. 6.

Key observations:
  • The U.S. dollar has weakened about 10% so far this year, making U.S. manufacturing exports more price-competitive in global markets.
  • The ISM manufacturing index hit its highest level since January 2004 in September.
  • The stutter-step we are seeing in the labor market is just a temporary setback that the market and Federal Reserve will largely look past.
  • Don’t be surprised if the hawkish talk from Fed governors continues, and the FOMC goes ahead with another rate hike in December.

Click here to read my full report.


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