All Posts Tagged: September

U.S. Outlook: September bounce intact

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Coming off a weak August, the data we have received so far for September shows economic growth bounced back decisively last month.

Graph showing recent rise in monthly auto sales.The indicators we’ve seen so far support our forecast for a higher GDP growth in the third quarter.

For a look at more of the key developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Oct. 7.

Key observations:
  • September’s total vehicle sales outpaced expectations, jumping up 4.4% from the month before.
  • The most exciting economic news in my mind was the ISM non-manufacturing survey for September, which jumped far more than any analysts expected.
  • The next hurdle will be retail sales, producer prices, and import prices that will be released next week.
  • The Fed funds futures implied probability of a rate hike by December increased to 63.1% this week.

Click here to read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: What’s in store for September payrolls?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph of initial jobless claims YTD 2014, with falling trend line.

The U.S. economy appears to be holding on to much of its momentum in the third quarter.

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Instant Analysis: September FOMC statement

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Closeup of pillars on exterior of Federal Reserve building

There was something for everyone in today’s FOMC meeting materials: the statement, summary of economic and interest rate projections, and a description of the Fed’s policy normalization plans.

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