All Posts Tagged: stimulus
As recently as September when U.S. stocks were hitting new record highs, economic optimism was rampant and, in retrospect, probably overdone.
In my view, the markets are once again overreacting.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Dec. 14.Key observations:
- Yes, the global economy is in what appears to be a synchronized slowdown.
- Tighter monetary policy and financial conditions, fading fiscal stimulus, and slowing global growth will all conspire to slow down the economic freight train that has been the U.S. economy this year.
- We forecast another quarter-point rate hike from the FOMC next week, bringing the fed funds target rate to a 2.25% to 2.50% range.
- A recession may come by sometime in 2020, but this episode of market volatility isn’t it.
We are finally getting some concrete details on the size and shape of the likely tax reform package that is moving through the House.Read More ›
We see emerging markets and smaller companies as a possible opportunity, but we are underweight to those areas in the current environment.Read More ›
We are still expecting slowing global growth, a muddle through from the Brexit, and central banks yearning for inflation and growth by almost any means necessary.Read More ›
Financial volatility continues to calm in the aftermath of the U.K. vote.Read More ›