All Posts Tagged: stock market

U.S. Outlook: Dark clouds loom over the global economy

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Bad news about the global economy seems to be piling up.

Last week the OECD cut its 2019 global growth estimate to only 3.2% from 3.3% forecast just two months ago. I suspect that most economists will be getting out their pencils to lower global economic growth estimates for this year and next. Economic surprises have remained uniformly negative across most of the world through the middle of May, implying that economic indicators are still falling well short of economists’ diminishing expectations.

dark-clouds-manufacturing-outlook

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 24.

Key observations:

• Manufacturing segments in two-thirds of major economies either at threshold between expansion and contraction or in decline.
• U.S. stocks are vulnerable to protracted China trade war.
• Recent readings of both U.S. manufacturing and services sectors bode ill for future GDP growth.

Read the full report.

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Investment Insights: April fools rush in

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

Our team has continued to enjoy beneficial positioning in the current investment environment, though we continue to be wary of how long such notable gains can last. Financial market fundamentals remain fairly positive in our view, but those may be overshadowed in the future by potential negative factors, particularly from geopolitics.

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Investment Insights: Excerpts from our 2019 outlook

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

There is greater uncertainty heading into 2019 than in many previous years.

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U.S. Outlook: Trimming our GDP forecast

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
National monuments and museums in Washington DC were closed during the U.S. governemnt shutdown in 2013.

How will the government shutdown impact our GDP forecast? Scott Anderson examines the data in his U.S. Outlook.

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U.S. Outlook: Dissecting the dots

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
View of a eagle statue on Federal Reserve building in DC

Just looking at the Fed’s median forecast gives one a false sense of precision about the future of U.S. interest rates.

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