All Posts Tagged: surprise index
This morning’s second estimate for Q1 GDP growth didn’t do much to alter the original view that the U.S. economy got off to a rough start this year.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 26.Key observations:
- The May FOMC minutes, released earlier this week, shouldn’t dissuade from further Fed rate hikes or the start of Fed balance sheet reductions before year end. But much depends on a second quarter bounce in activity.
- Housing, real estate, and personal/household data have missed more regularly over the past month, while retail/wholesale and industrial sectors continue to underperform expectations.
- If the consumer spending recovery doesn’t materialize, watch out for falling growth forecasts.
In this week’s report we show how truly unusual the current divergence between “soft” data surprises and the “hard” data surprises really is.Read More ›
Upside U.S. economic surprises were a common theme this week, helping to support the post-election equity rally and prolonging the Treasury bond market sell-off.Read More ›
Just when you thought the economic doldrums would last forever, the U.S. economy is dancing to a different beat.Read More ›