All Posts Tagged: taper

U.S. Outlook: Why the Fed will ignore signs of weakness

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The latest round of U.S. economic data releases are still falling short of economists’ expectations, which has already been reduced.

graph_surpriseindex_febBelow is a brief summary of my weekly analysis, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on March 7, 2014.

Key observations:
  • We expect FOMC to continue $10 billion monthly taper in March.
  • Slowdown in the services sector can’t be totally blamed on weather.
  • Economy can’t break out of recent malaise without pickup in service sector hiring.
  • Watch economic projections at March FOMC  for clues on change in asset purchase program.
  • Our forecast for second half of 2014 remains 3.2%.

Click here to read my full report.


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