All Posts Tagged: technology

California Economic Outlook: Trade War Fallout

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

California’s job growth unexpectedly accelerated recently, bucking a national slowdown trend. Consequently, we have revised our job growth forecast for the state to 1.4% for 2019 from our prior forecast in June of 1.2%. However, the longer-term outlook is still for slower job growth.

Less Traffic

The U.S. and China have added more tariffs in the past few months. This has increased the likelihood of a protracted trade war that will dent economic growth in both countries and in the State of California. The negative fallout from the U.S.-China trade war is beginning to show up in economic data. Total two-way maritime traffic is down 0.3% at the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports. These ports handle about half of all maritime trade with China. This does not reflect the additional tariffs of approximately $110 billion on Chinese imports that were put in place on September 1. They are likely to curb trade flows even further and could result in job losses at the state’s ports and transportation and warehousing hubs.

The expansion of the trade war to the technology sector is a significant headwind for technology companies in the Bay Area. The sector is already facing challenges from increased regulatory and anti-trust scrutiny. This clouds the economic outlook for the state and region because tech has been driving a significant share of California’s growth.

An analysis by the Bank of the West Economics Team finds California’s Central Valley farm sector has so far weathered the U.S.-China trade war. However, prolonged tariffs will likely hit both farm income and employment and become a bigger drag on Central Valley economic growth.

Slower Job Growth Ahead

Despite the recent uptick, annual job growth in California has slowed for the past three years. The slowdown is forecast to continue through 2020, with growth of 1.4% this year and only 0.7% next year. The forecast growth for 2020 would be the slowest since employment contracted 1.1% in 2010.

Job growth is expected to accelerate in the Bay Area and Central Coast in 2019 but slow sharply in Southern California and the Central Valley. The forecast for 2020 is noticeably slower growth across all four regions. California’s unemployment rate reached a one-year high of 4.3% in April but declined to 4.1% by July, matching the record low for the state. Unemployment in California is forecast to average 4.3% in 2019 and 4.6% in 2020 as job creation slows.

Read my full report.

Read More ›

Investment Insights: You can fight the Fed

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

Financial markets are breathing a momentary sigh of relief after one of the biggest negative months in recent memory for stocks.

Read More ›

CES 2019 wrap up: Technology evolution, not revolution

Andreas Bubenzer-Paim
Technology Banking
Sunset time high-angle view of the Las Vegas strip featuring the Eiffel tower replica and the fountains of Bellagio as well as the resort hotels Bellagio, Paris-Las Vegas, Ballys and Caesars Palace.

What business leaders can learn about new emerging technologies at the recent Consumer Electronic Show (CES) in Las Vegas.

Read More ›

Why AI is a top investment for entrepreneurs in China

Andreas Bubenzer-Paim
Technology Banking
Businessman using using face recognition outdoors

Did you know 54% of entrepreneurs in China are working with businesses driven by AI? Learn more about this emerging trend.

Read More ›

Greentech: Where is the energy transition headed in the United States?

Andreas Bubenzer-Paim
Technology Banking
Engineer in yellow hardhat testing a solar panel

After suffering through the 2008 financial crisis, greentech startups are now starting to surf the digital wave.

Read More ›