All Posts Tagged: trade deficit

U.S. Outlook: After weak growth, what’s next for 2016?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

An out-sized snap-back in real consumer spending was nearly the lone driver of GDP growth last quarter. But beyond the consumer, there wasn’t a lot to cheer about. See highlights of my analysis below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on July 29.

Graph showing fluctuation in trade balance of goods between January 2014 and May 2016

Key observations:
  • Business fixed investment slipped for the third consecutive quarter in a row with declines in structures and equipment investment.
  • Business inventories fell outright in Q2, dropping by $8.1B, down from a $40.7 billion increase in Q1.
  • The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in the second quarter by about $10 billion as exports grew 1.4% and imports slipped -0.4%.
  • The worse than anticipated drop in durable goods orders again in June, down 4.0% on the month after a 2.8% revised decline in May, suggests the improvement in business investment and manufacturing is going to be a gradual process at best.

Click here to read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Trade balance improves, but it’s not a good thing

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Chart showing monthly trend line of the US trade deficit.

Unfortunately, the recent narrowing in the trade deficit has been driven by import declines rather than better export performance.

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U.S. Outlook: Uneven growth with whiffs of higher prices

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing the downward movement of the trade deficit.

This week’s U.S. Trade report for March revealed an even more lopsided trade performance than was estimated in last week’s Q1 GDP report.

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U.S. Outlook: Growth has slowed — is it transitory or not?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing most recent downward trend in consumer confidence.

Is the second quarter shaping up to be another disappointment as well?

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U.S. Outlook: Is stronger growth in Q2 sustainable?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Bar graph showing real, quarterly GDP growth/loss over past few years.

Before we get too excited Q2 GDP growth, let’s take a closer look at some of the components that make up this important economic indicator.

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