All Posts Tagged: trade war

U.S. Outlook: When giants fight

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

When giants fight, folks get trampled. A prolonged and escalating U.S. trade war with China is now our baseline view and no longer a downside risk to our outlook.

The impact of the trade war escalation is clearly visible in our lowered forecasts for U.S. GDP growth, interest rates, and inflation. We have cut our near‐term consumer inflation forecasts as oil, energy, and metals prices plunge and the U.S. dollar strengthens on flight‐to‐safety capital flows.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 31.

Key observations:
  • Escalating U.S.-China trade war is now our base case and no longer just a risk.
  • U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2019 has been cut to 2.3% from 2.5%.
  • Our Fed rate cut forecast has been moved forward, and the Fed may lower rates as early as September.

Read my full report.

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Investment Insights: The trade war reignites

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

Stock markets tumbled today as the U.S.-China trade war reignited after representatives failed to reach an agreement last week.

The S&P 500 Index fell 2.41% on Monday, while exchanges around the world were in the red, according to Bloomberg data, after both sides announced a fresh round of tariffs.

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Investment Insights: A two-horse race

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

After almost crossing the finish line, trade negotiations between the U.S. and China reached another hurdle over the weekend as President Trump tweeted that the U.S. would raise the current tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10% to 25% by the end of the week.

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Instant Analysis: FOMC signals prolonged rate hike pause into 2020

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Federal Reserve building at dusk

The FOMC all but gave up their dreams of normalizing short-term interest rates, deciding to hold the Fed fund target rate between 2.25% and 2.50% at today’s FOMC meeting with 11 FOMC participants expecting the Fed funds rate to end 2019 at the same levels.  

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Investment Insights: Playing the waiting game

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

Stocks pared gains on Tuesday as markets hesitated over when the U.S. and China will actually reach their long awaited trade deal before recovering on Wednesday after the Fed’s meeting.

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