All Posts Tagged: trade
When giants fight, folks get trampled. A prolonged and escalating U.S. trade war with China is now our baseline view and no longer a downside risk to our outlook.
The impact of the trade war escalation is clearly visible in our lowered forecasts for U.S. GDP growth, interest rates, and inflation. We have cut our near‐term consumer inflation forecasts as oil, energy, and metals prices plunge and the U.S. dollar strengthens on flight‐to‐safety capital flows.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 31.Key observations:
- Escalating U.S.-China trade war is now our base case and no longer just a risk.
- U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2019 has been cut to 2.3% from 2.5%.
- Our Fed rate cut forecast has been moved forward, and the Fed may lower rates as early as September.
Read my full report.Read More ›
Bad news about the global economy seems to be piling up. Last week the OECD cut its 2019 global growth estimate to only 3.2% from 3.3% forecast just two months ago.Read More ›
While U.S. and Chinese trade relations sour, concerns about other U.S. trade partners have grown, as officials attempt to shore up agreements with Canada and Mexico, and the European Union.Read More ›
Stock markets tumbled today as the U.S.-China trade war reignited after representatives failed to reach an agreement last week.
The S&P 500 Index fell 2.41% on Monday, while exchanges around the world were in the red, according to Bloomberg data, after both sides announced a fresh round of tariffs.Read More ›