All Posts Tagged: Treasury bonds

U.S. Outlook: China trade fight takes center stage

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

U.S. stock declines slowed after heavy losses overnight in Asian and European equity markets in reaction to the Trump administrations $50B tariff announcement against China.

Graph showing amount of U.S. steel imports, by countryChina responded swiftly overnight, rolling out tariffs of its own on 128 products, or $3B of U.S. imports, including California wine, fruit, and almonds.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 23.

Key observations:
  • China has also warned it would take legal action at the WTO.
  • I would not describe this trade dispute as a full-blown trade war at this stage, but it is certainly an opening salvo in what could become one.
  • Early estimates put the negative impact on U.S. and global GDP growth around 0.1 percentage points of real GDP at most, so far.
  • This trade dispute might not stay in the trade realm. China could retaliate financially, by reducing its purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds.

 

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Biggest FOMC meeting of the year on tap

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing GDP forecasts as affected by recent hurricanes.

We are calling this the biggest FOMC meeting of the year because of the impact it could have on interest rate and inflation expectations into 2018 and beyond.

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Instant Analysis: April’s FOMC statement

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
View from the street of the Federal Reserve building on a sunny day.

I believe the FOMC took some very minor baby steps today toward paving the way toward another rate hike before too long.

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Instant Analysis: Retail sales report for August

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Couple with young son looking in store window inside a mall.

Retail sales gains were broad-based in August but remained lumpy in magnitude. 

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