All Posts Tagged: Treasury bonds
U.S. President Donald Trump’s tweets that he is raising tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports from 10% to 25% because the Chinese “broke the deal” triggered a bout of global stock and bond market volatility not seen since December.
We interpret this week’s market tremors as an early warning of a tougher US and global economic environment ahead.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 10.Key observations:
- Raising tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports from 10% to 25% nearly doubles the negative economic impact on both the U.S. and China from today’s tariff levels.
- A 2020 economic recession is not inevitable, but the window for the Fed to achieve a soft landing is closing quickly.
- Signs point to a U.S. consumer spending slowdown ahead.
Read my full report.Read More ›
I would not describe this trade dispute as a full-blown trade war at this stage, but it is certainly an opening salvo in what could become one.Read More ›
We are calling this the biggest FOMC meeting of the year because of the impact it could have on interest rate and inflation expectations into 2018 and beyond.Read More ›
I believe the FOMC took some very minor baby steps today toward paving the way toward another rate hike before too long.Read More ›