All Posts Tagged: Treasury bonds

U.S. Outlook: Buckle up, it’s going to get bumpy

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

U.S. President Donald Trump’s tweets that he is raising tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports from 10% to 25% because the Chinese “broke the deal” triggered a bout of global stock and bond market volatility not seen since December.

Economic crisis - Stock market graphs and charts - Financial and business background

We interpret this week’s market tremors as an early warning of a tougher US and global economic environment ahead.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 10.

Key observations:

  • Raising tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports from 10% to 25% nearly doubles the negative economic impact on both the U.S. and China from today’s tariff levels.
  • A 2020 economic recession is not inevitable, but the window for the Fed to achieve a soft landing is closing quickly.
  • Signs point to a U.S. consumer spending slowdown ahead.

Read my full report.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: China trade fight takes center stage

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing amount of U.S. steel imports, by country

I would not describe this trade dispute as a full-blown trade war at this stage, but it is certainly an opening salvo in what could become one.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Biggest FOMC meeting of the year on tap

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing GDP forecasts as affected by recent hurricanes.

We are calling this the biggest FOMC meeting of the year because of the impact it could have on interest rate and inflation expectations into 2018 and beyond.

Read More ›

Instant Analysis: April’s FOMC statement

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
View from the street of the Federal Reserve building on a sunny day.

I believe the FOMC took some very minor baby steps today toward paving the way toward another rate hike before too long.

Read More ›

Instant Analysis: Retail sales report for August

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Couple with young son looking in store window inside a mall.

Retail sales gains were broad-based in August but remained lumpy in magnitude. 

Read More ›