All Posts Tagged: U.S. Outlook

A 2020 Forecast Upgrade Despite December Payroll Miss

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by only 145k jobs in December, a slight undershoot from the consensus forecast of 160k and our own forecast of 170k. This is a sharp deterioration from November’s 256k job gain.

Read More ›

Reducing Downside Tail Risks for 2020

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Gray jigsaw puzzle pieces with a stray piece that has the British flag on it, with the EU logo underneath the puzzle.

For the first time since early 2018 when the U.S.-China Trade War came on the scene and early 2019 when Brexit deadlines came and went, we believe downside tail risks for the U.S. and global economy are measurably easing.

Read More ›

A Positive Surprise From November Payrolls

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Nonfarm payroll growth accelerated to 266k jobs last month easily surpassing the consensus forecast looking for a 180k job gain.

Read More ›

Why a Soft landing for the U.S. Economy Rings Hollow

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

With U.S. stock prices near all-time highs, equity investors have already positioned themselves for a soft landing for the U.S. economy and an acceleration in earnings and economic growth next year.

Read More ›